First of, all of our hearts go out to the families and loved ones aboard Malaysian Air MH370. It is a tragic event and we advance this theory with the deepest respect to all aboard the flight and their families. The mystery surrounding this event prompted us to use our experience and knowledge to come up with what we think is a plausible story.
On Saturday at 12:41 a.m. Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 departs Kuala Lumpur International Airport.
At 1:30 a.m on the same day, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 clears Malaysian air space in preparation to be handed over to Vietnamese traffic control. Its position at the time was Lat 06 55 15n, Log 103 34 43e. It was at this location that the transponders were disabled. Shortly thereafter, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 executes a left hand turn; taking the aircraft on a south westerly course towards the Indian Ocean. If Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was experiencing mechanical, or electrical problems, the two logical actions would be to take a reciprocal course back to Kuala Lumpur International, or declare an emergency with Vietnamese Traffic Control and request a vector to Ho Chi Min City Airport approximately 350 miles from its present location. Had the aircraft broken apart while in flight, or on impact in the water, you would have a debris field with clothing, seat cushions and other items including fuel etc. On that basis, we hypothesized that there was no crash or airframe failure in the vicinity of its last know location.
There are other significant pieces of information for example the course change and position reported by the Malaysian Air Force at 2:40 a.m. placing the aircraft near Pulau Perak in the Strait of Malacca; furthermore, the Malaysian Air Force reported that Malaysian 370 was reducing its altitude from its original cruising altitude of 35,000 feet. At the time Malaysian 370 was detected on military radar, the planes altitude was reported as approximately 29, 000 feet and descending. This information is important because Chapter 6 , Section 6-3-4, “Special Emergency (Air Piracy)” of the Aeronautical Information Manual, requires specific actions on the part of the pilot in the event that transponder or radio communications is unavailable.
“d. If it is possible to do so without jeopardizing the safety of the flight, the pilot of a hijacked passenger aircraft, after departing from the cleared routing over which the aircraft was operating, will attempt to do one or more of the following things, insofar as circumstances may permit:
1. Maintain a true airspeed of no more than 400 knots, and preferably an altitude of between 10,000 and 25,000 feet.
2. Fly a course toward the destination which the hijacker has announced.”
It is our belief that the pilots aboard Malaysia 370 were following Air Piracy procedures, which accounts for what would appear to be an irrational course change. The fact that Malaysian military radars detected a reduction in altitude, gives us a reasonable comfort level that our assessment is correct and that the pilots aboard Malaysia 370 were following Special Emergency (Air Piracy ) procedures.
So what was the objective if in fact a hijacking took place?
We believe that the course flown by Malaysian 370 would place the aircraft in the middle of the Indian Ocean when it ran out of fuel. Two possibilities exist. First, the plane’s attitude could be such that it crashed into the ocean, or the pilots may have attempted a water landing during which the aircraft flooded (by intent or as a result of the landing) sinking with all hands onboard, which could account for the absence of debris.
This coming May is the anniversary of Usama Bin Ladin’s burial at sea; believed to have been in the Indian Ocean at an undisclosed location.
This is only our hypothesis based on the limited information available. However, it is highly probable, in our view, that Malaysia 370 was hijacked and not missing as a result of airframe or system failure.