It’s Friday once more – it seems like Friday comes around every week doesn’t it? It’s also time to think about the weekend BBQ, range session or just kicking back and relaxing, well deserved I might add. It’s also time for our shoot the shit.
- It’s been quite a week. We lost a RQ-4A Global Hawk drone over Gulf of Hormuz. The Iranian government claims that the drone was in Iranian airspace so it was brought down by a surface to air missile battery. So, there’s a huge cluster-fuck in the media about going to war with Iran, etc., etc., etc.
- We’ve also seen that on Thursday, the United States Senate, voted to ban weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
Here are my concerns centered around both items.
Iran’s geopolitical goal is to be the tail that wags the Middle East dog, make no mistake about that. Iran, fully understands that endangering the region puts them in the same position as North Korea, I’ll explain. The North Koreans are not concerned about military action against their regime because they have a huge arsenal pointed at South Korea’s head. No government will dare do anything that is either meaningful or effective to North Korea because it endangers NOKO’s hostage, SOKO. Iran is attempting the same business model. They are already in Iraq, they’ve been in Syria for years, they are now in Yemen via the Houthis (who have attacked Saudi facilities like the airport and power plant), and they are an extension of Iran’s military.
Standing in the way of further Iranian expansion is Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Israel; Kuwait, Qatar and Oman lack the military capabilities to be a significant deterrent to Iran.
On Thursday, our U.S. Senate, voted to deny weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan amounting to roughly $6 billion. You’ll have to pardon my candor when I describe the action as a vulgar display of ignorance, but stupidity may be the more appropriate accolade. So…
Q. Why did the U.S. Senate vote down the sale?
A. Driving that decision was the assassination of a Washington Post journalist and activist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. The U.S. Senate is also concerned about Saudi Arabia’s alleged indiscriminate bombing of Yemeni civilians (in what is a classic asymmetric theater mind you! ).
Analysis of the Senates action:
By denying weapons to Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Jordan you are denying the very countries that will stand against further Iranian expansion, the ability to do so effectively. Thereby ensuring the very same U.S. involvement they don’t want to see happen; not to mention the very real possibility that they’ll buy weapons from Russia, like Turkey has done.
As tragic and heinous as Jamal Khashoggi’s murder was, it’s been concluded by a number of intelligence services that Prince Mohammad bin Salman gave the execution order. Now, think about what I’m going to say next. Should Germany, France, Israel or the UK deny weapon sales to the United States because a government official murders a journalist, or anyone else for that matter? Probably not!
So, I sincerely hope President Trump VETO’s the bill.
As to Iran, inaction is precisely the wrong thing to do. I call your attention to Operation House of Cards, 10 May 2018, against Iranian forces in Syria. Not a lot has happened to Israel other than Iran is not launching rockets at Israel from Syria. If Iran, is allowed to destabilize the Arabian Peninsula or hold them hostage you can kiss-off any negotiating leverage with Iran. The global economy is at stake. And, if you don’t believe that take a look at the spike in oil prices at Thursday’s market.
Remember that a shoot the shit is social interaction in which participants don’t need to know anything about the subject, you’re allowed to make any unsupported statement that you wish, use uncensored profanity, insult anyone you wish or change the subject at any time. It’s far better to participate in a shoot the shit than it is to pay a jackass that studied psychology so they could understand themselves $150+ per hour.
Have a great weekend, be safe and spend some quality time with your buds and family.